Combs Spouts Off

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Prediction: Kavanaugh will get bipartisan support

Posted by Richard on July 10, 2018

National Review’s Jim Geraghty has a roundup of conservative praise for Trump’s SCOTUS pick, Brett Kavanaugh. But the really interesting news, and the basis for my prediction, comes at the end:

The Susan B. Anthony List commissioned a poll of registered voters in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and West Virginia, and asked voters, “As you may know, Justice Kennedy recently retired from the Supreme Court. The President will appoint a replacement and the U.S. Senate will vote on that person. Do you think Senator [Nelson, Donnelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp, or Manchin: depending on the state] should vote to confirm President Trump’s appointment to the Supreme Court?” (Note this poll is conducted before Kavanaugh was named.)

In Florida and Indiana, 56 percent of registered voters answered Yes. In Missouri, 57 percent of respondents said Yes, in West Virginia it was 59 percent, and in North Dakota it was all the way up to 68 percent.

It’s a near certainty that some of those senators, facing tough re-election battles, will decide that keeping their job trumps (if you’ll forgive the expression) loyalty to the party leadership. All five races are currently considered toss-ups. Donnelly, Heitkamp, and Manchin voted to confirm Gorsuch, arguably even more of an originalist/textualist on the Constitution than Kavanaugh.

Another five Senate Democrats are running for re-election in states that Trump carried in 2016 (Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Montana, and Pennsylvania). But those senators (Stabenow, Baldwin, Brown, Tester, and Casey, respectively) are currently favored to retain their seats, and thus are less likely to break ranks for reasons of self-preservation.

I’m guessing that Kavanaugh will get three or four Democratic votes, more than enough to offset the possibility of one or two GOP defectors (Collins and a RINO to be named later).

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